Monsoon Update 2026: Rainfall Deficit, El Niño and Rabi Impact
The latest monsoon update is sobering for farmers. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended at 87% of the long period average, the weakest season since 2015, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). El Niño strengthened through the season, and the IMD expects below-normal rain across much of the country between October and December. That sets up a tough rabi season for water-short regions.
This guide explains what the 2026 season delivered, which regions suffered most, what the northeast monsoon may bring, and what the data means for rabi sowing, reservoirs and prices.
Quick answer: The June–September 2026 monsoon brought 759.4 mm of rain against a normal 868.6 mm, or 87% of the long period average. South India got 76% and East and North-East India 74%. IMD expects October rainfall below 85% of normal and below-normal rain for most of the country in October–December.
Key takeaways
- All-India monsoon rainfall finished at 87% of normal, the lowest since 2015 and fourth-lowest since 2001.
- East and North-East India recorded 74%, its lowest since 1901, and the South Peninsula got 76%.
- June (65%) and August (84%) were weak, while July (101%) and September (92%) were closer to normal.
- El Niño is expected to peak around November and ease from March 2027.
- The government has set a 2026-27 foodgrain target of 373.93 million tonnes and asked states to plan rabi crops around water budgets.
सारांश (हिंदी): 2026 का मानसून सामान्य का 87% रहा, जो 2015 के बाद सबसे कमज़ोर है। दक्षिण भारत में 76% और पूर्व-पूर्वोत्तर में 74% बारिश हुई। अल नीनो मज़बूत है, इसलिए रबी में पानी की योजना सोच-समझकर बनाएं और दलहन-तिलहन पर विचार करें।
Monsoon update 2026: season in numbers
The season started well on paper. The monsoon reached the Andaman Sea about six days early on 16 May. However, it arrived in Kerala on 4 June, three days late, and June rain ran well below normal. A recovery in July helped, but August dipped again.
| Month | Rainfall (% of normal) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| June | 65% | Weakest month; no low-pressure systems formed |
| July | 101% | Central India very strong; South and East weak |
| August | 84% | South Peninsula lowest at 73% |
| September | 92% | North-West India above normal; wet last week |
| Season | 87% | 759.4 mm against a 868.6 mm normal |
Regional monsoon update
The national average hides a sharp divide. Central and north-west India stayed close to normal, while the south and east fell far short.
| Region | Rainfall (% of normal) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| North-West India | 94% | Close to normal, helped by a wet September |
| Central India | 97% | Near normal |
| South Peninsula | 76% | Fourth-lowest since 1901 |
| East and North-East India | 74% | Lowest since 1901 |
| Monsoon core zone (rainfed farmland) | 94% | Below its normal range |
Across 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 (about 53% of India’s area) had normal rain and 17 (about 42%) were deficient. Only Odisha recorded excess rainfall, helped by repeated low-pressure systems.
Why the 2026 monsoon fell short
IMD pointed to El Niño. A weak El Niño emerged in June and became strong by the end of the season, while the Indian Ocean Dipole stayed neutral. El Niño usually warms the central Pacific and weakens Indian monsoon circulation.
IMD’s own forecasts also leaned dry. Its April outlook was 92% of the average, and its late-May update cut that to 90%. The actual figure came in lower, at 87%.
Monsoon update: the effect on farms
Weak rain reached fields unevenly. Kharif sowing finished close to last year’s level overall, but not every crop held up. As of 11 September, kharif area was 109.65 million hectares, down from 111.25 million a year earlier. Paddy covered 42.68 million hectares, about 1.7 million hectares less. You can read the crop-wise picture in our kharif season guide.
| Indicator | Latest figure |
|---|---|
| Kharif area (11 September 2026) | 109.65 million ha, down 1.6 million ha |
| Paddy area | 42.68 million ha, down about 1.7 million ha |
| Foodgrain target 2026-27 | 373.93 million tonnes, 2.63 million below last year’s estimate |
| Rabi foodgrain target | 177.72 million tonnes |
| Reservoir storage (24 September) | 79% nationally; about 50% in the south |
| Fertiliser stocks for rabi | Over 16.3 million tonnes, against 12.2 million a year ago |
States hit hardest include Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and Rajasthan. Maharashtra has declared 265 of its 358 talukas drought-hit. Dry spells hurt paddy, cotton and maize, and they raised worry about final yields.
What the weak monsoon means for prices
Lower output tends to support prices, especially for pulses, oilseeds and cotton. Analysts expect higher imports of pulses and vegetable oils. Rice stocks are comfortable, which eases pressure on rice. For wheat, the key risk lies ahead, in the rabi crop. Our wheat rate today guide tracks mandi prices against the support price. Market-linked sectors also feel the effect, as our agri stocks guide explains.
Northeast monsoon and the October to December outlook
The southwest monsoon withdraws from the country by mid-October, and the northeast monsoon follows. It normally begins around 20 October, but it has often started late. Tamil Nadu gets about 48% of its yearly rain in October to December, so this season matters a great deal for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
IMD has said October rainfall is likely below 85% of normal. For October to December, it expects below-normal rain over most of the country, with parts of North-West and southern peninsular India possibly seeing normal to above-normal rain. El Niño is expected to peak in November and weaken from March 2027.
What farmers should do now
The government has asked states to build district-level rabi plans based on water budgets. It wants farmers in low-moisture areas to favour pulses and oilseeds over water-hungry crops. A national “Khet Bachao Abhiyan” runs from 22 October to 30 November to promote soil health and crop diversification.
- Check your water. Measure well levels and canal availability before choosing a crop.
- Match crop to water. Consider chickpea, mustard or lentil where water is short. See prices in our Rabi MSP 2026-27 guide.
- Use short-duration varieties that mature before the heat of February and March.
- Test your soil. Apply fertiliser based on need. Try the fertilizer calculator for an estimate.
- Insure the crop and keep records for relief schemes.
Monsoon update checklist for the next 5 months
| Time | What to watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Late October | Northeast monsoon onset | Rain for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh |
| November | El Niño peak and rabi sowing progress | Sets the wheat, mustard and gram area |
| December to January | Winter rain and cold spells | Soil moisture for crop growth |
| February to March | Temperature rise | Heat during grain filling can cut wheat yield |
Monsoon update: what comes next
The 2026 monsoon is over, but its effects are not. Reservoirs, soil moisture, fertiliser supply and rabi planning will decide how much stress farmers feel through spring. Watch the northeast monsoon, the El Niño peak and February temperatures.
Follow ongoing coverage in our Agriculture News section, use the crop calendar to plan sowing, and return to the Harvest homepage for daily mandi rates.
Data note: rainfall figures are from the India Meteorological Department’s season summary of 30 September 2026. Sowing, target and reservoir figures come from Agriculture Ministry statements and reports dated September–October 2026. Forecasts can change. The Harvest is an independent information website and is not affiliated with any government body.
Monsoon update: frequently asked questions
How much rain did India get in the 2026 monsoon?
India received 759.4 mm of rain between June and September 2026, against a normal of 868.6 mm. That is 87% of the long period average, the lowest since 2015.
Which regions had the lowest monsoon rainfall in 2026?
East and North-East India recorded 74% of normal, its lowest since 1901. The South Peninsula recorded 76%. Central India got 97% and North-West India 94%.
Why was the 2026 monsoon weak?
IMD cited El Niño. A weak El Niño emerged in June and became strong by the end of the season. The Indian Ocean Dipole stayed neutral.
What is the rainfall outlook for October to December 2026?
IMD expects October rainfall below 85% of normal and below-normal rain over most of the country from October to December, except parts of North-West India and the southern peninsula that may see normal to above-normal rain.
When does the northeast monsoon start?
The northeast monsoon normally begins around 20 October, after the southwest monsoon withdraws. It often starts late. Tamil Nadu gets about 48% of its yearly rain from October to December.
How will the weak monsoon affect rabi crops?
Lower soil moisture and reservoir levels can reduce irrigation. The government has asked states to plan rabi crops around water budgets and to promote pulses and oilseeds where water is short. Warm weather in February and March is a further risk for wheat.
What is the 2026-27 foodgrain target?
The Agriculture Ministry has set a 2026-27 foodgrain target of 373.93 million tonnes, which is 2.63 million tonnes lower than the estimated 2025-26 output. The rabi target is 177.72 million tonnes.
